The Economist Intelligence Corporate Network(EICN) recently concluded the first session of their bi-annual Regional Strategic Forecast, delivered by Economist Intelligence: EIU Chief Economist, Simon Baptist in both Singapore and Kuala Lumpur at the Four Seasons Hotels and Resorts. We were joined by an excellent panel in Singapore:
Polka Mishra, Partner and Managing Director, Javelin Wealth Management
Regional Strategic Forecast:
Observations on individual economies:
China – observations that the bounce back from zero-covid is faster than expected, with cases peaking earlier than expected. However, the impact of China’s impending growth rebound will be felt unevenly across the region.
India – A country with mouth-watering opportunities, accompanied by eye-watering challenges. A youthful population, rising urbanisation and consumption carries economic heft, but the business environment has not kept up. Weakness in the finance sector, requiring more “innovative” capital as well as platforming, will gear the country towards greater growth. As a supply hub alternative, India’s production capabilities remain 10-15 years behind China, with problems in quality control.
Emerging Asia – Strong job recovery has spurred consumption, but wages remained stagnant. A firm recovery in retail sales has been generally shared across the region, with consumption preferences shifting from discretionary goods to experiential spending suggesting some frontier economies like Vietnam are well underway on their transition.